Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
22.5 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.5 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3424°N, 118.1348°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 12:54:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 11.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
92613506fbf11bc91f2a20fed5abaaf4f62872a274f6ea906fb4f8eed4df206b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.34--118.13-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 04:38:43 PST
Source Batch
20260803_190534_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 04:38:44.106216+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.