Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
54.3 miles South-West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
54.3 miles South-West of Malibu
33.3370°N, 119.2346°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 14:34:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
129.5 km
29.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
30.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
9.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a908297f930960193ef342bcba4b29268b03a5e9c4d2932712fd57223cc2335f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.34--119.23-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_121529_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 21:47:54.605295+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.