Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
2.5 miles West of Bombay Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.5 miles West of Bombay Beach
33.3499°N, 115.7731°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 14:10:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
161h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
17.2 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc1b381964b712b82b570e4f3fb663b5054549293ce1d7038ecd1a5abdc76df6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.35--115.77-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_121735_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.