Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.0 miles South of Aguanga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles South of Aguanga
33.3481°N, 116.8915°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 07:15:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 12.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
23afa919fdf4a8a808e2b5d0606aaa2e78e4f79b4bac49dbe7236ec6ed82359c
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-33.35--116.89-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 18:17:17 PST
Source Batch
20260815_084433_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 18:20:08.699957+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-16 07:15:34.432000+00:00
2026-08-16T07:15:34.432
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 18:17:17.427770+00:00
2026-08-15T21:45:37.215528+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"