Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
20.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3489°N, 118.0897°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 11:16:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
103.1 km
3.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 8.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
29eb0110e351df63be4f7dac37715ba6e42b6ab4434cf891e3167f0c77875d27
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.35--118.09-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 22:40:46 PST
Source Batch
20260804_130943_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 22:40:47.884037+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.