Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.1 miles North of Ocotillo Wells
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.1 miles North of Ocotillo Wells
33.3573°N, 116.1796°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 14:05:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
448fe9e2f49c8ba7231c1c7e9937b016efd41fa8b41be4f6be38a53f0a1b87c9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.36--116.18-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 22:28:35 PST
Source Batch
20260808_125544_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 22:28:36.604371+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.