Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.6 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.6 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3647°N, 118.0798°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 15:30:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.3 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
effa13efa3944d1de6e4f61ae113ed74a3b0660c0146d68acd657c28b1bbf03e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.36--118.08-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.