Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.9 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.9 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3639°N, 118.0896°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 19:34:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
10h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c407b1e6691d1fa41368697b4d0ddb5c1f9be4a557996b2fd5956aca24606a6e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.36--118.09-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_001513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 09:33:13.536511+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.