Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.4 miles North-East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.4 miles North-East of Slab City
33.3701°N, 115.1575°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 09:24:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
22.9 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 11.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fa2e3613ad0f85d72fc7b02cfb75c00bb6bfc595c0a9c3dd7faaf87ebe9d12bd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.37--115.16-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 20:27:13 PST
Source Batch
20260802_105334_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 20:27:14.823204+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.