Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
14.4 miles South-West of Laguna Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.4 miles South-West of Laguna Beach
33.3848°N, 117.9460°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 00:04:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddeabdf8ffeb073f7f3d234c11a1aa1e289fcadb7d0a1d5579183c52501095b1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.38--117.95-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 12:53:09 PST
Source Batch
20260731_033509_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 12:53:10.445097+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.