Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
18.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3772°N, 118.0798°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 08:33:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
23.7 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 12.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e968b0a2bd89a1c2b50e0ccc71e9e189721fac83b5612753a19eb66666bf3dcd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.38--118.08-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260730_033332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.