Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
19.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.8 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3752°N, 118.1081°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 01:10:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
480a761364cf35b970fb1bde986c0ecf01f095fd6f00414db98f937c9ff8689f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.38--118.11-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 12:57:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_032821_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.