Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
20.6 miles South of Huntington Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.6 miles South of Huntington Beach
33.3776°N, 118.1162°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 21:26:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
589204e107f2903702de7e5f9271e42e26e9f048e8bf56f432f300dbbea46589
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.38--118.12-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_200611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 05:39:27.868892+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.