Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
20.5 miles South of Huntington Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.5 miles South of Huntington Beach
33.3830°N, 118.1297°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 21:51:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
11.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
13.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 11.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e1025fa3f773c81ebfba6bba5844ca677e49b4d7b8b1cbffc291aec1dc8e656b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.38--118.13-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_002417_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 09:52:54.675116+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.