Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
17.9 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.9 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3921°N, 118.0782°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 21:21:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
50h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.23 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.7 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
152c8d5bf24b0bdb0e79085307c84382d9642fd4645aa9b8b3b4573fae57ea31
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.39--118.08-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 18:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260806_090614_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.