Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
20.5 miles South-West of Huntington Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.5 miles South-West of Huntington Beach
33.3955°N, 118.1596°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 16:40:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
18.5 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
96b6e7045a0a6e1e35855583a0b0f86d2745a78ef7a086c3cc3dacb0d848c1b2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.40--118.16-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 02:45:17 PST
Source Batch
20260730_172339_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.