Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
17.1 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.1 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.4067°N, 118.0831°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 20:42:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
22.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c647fa45d905b9ba1a2dbd444ccef741cc5917b68970cceede2303cf7617c5d3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.41--118.08-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 13:08:18 PST
Source Batch
20260807_033527_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 13:08:19.902921+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.