Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
18.5 miles South of Huntington Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles South of Huntington Beach
33.4078°N, 118.1074°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 11:43:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4e942657af2f80a10e4d8366f68502c306bcd5a8115660946ab8b5534195b8f8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.41--118.11-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 03:55:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_182203_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 00:23:30.495153+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.