Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
14.5 miles North-East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles North-East of Slab City
33.4192°N, 115.3039°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 18:55:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f08c64651f54eac97380cacd1d622f2e3c1672fd38d42f9beb2bd14d33b562e2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.42--115.30-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 07:42:46 PST
Source Batch
20260807_221041_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 07:42:46.984128+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.