Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
19.4 miles North-East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.4 miles North-East of Slab City
33.4421°N, 115.2111°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 21:18:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
96.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
308f40368d389762c83e1db68081d0a523d4e6bc0f251125fa9961eb2c0f51f9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.44--115.21-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 19:52:08 PST
Source Batch
20260730_103142_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 19:52:09.559882+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.