Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
0.9 miles West of Aguanga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.9 miles West of Aguanga
33.4431°N, 116.8792°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 10:43:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
50.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
17.8 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cea55eb580652280f66be28c6e2196c73cbc77b01b4035e6a5af3b9fb4bd5b81
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.44--116.88-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 00:00:12 PST
Source Batch
20260802_142607_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.