Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
0.8 miles North-East of Aguanga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.8 miles North-East of Aguanga
33.4515°N, 116.8524°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 10:07:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
52.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e8b8a1814ae0eed2c5ee81ac7878d70b83cc4b7e1d62214c91a32de4fc3dca3e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.45--116.85-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Source Batch
20260802_175908_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 03:34:22.291936+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.