Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.2 miles North-West of Aguanga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.2 miles North-West of Aguanga
33.4794°N, 116.9047°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 14:13:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
53.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.7 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
36259180f49bf6a2aca037f69f62f3447b90be77443aafe100f01a52cb0b825a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.48--116.90-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 14:12:12 PST
Source Batch
20260803_043847_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 14:12:13.952993+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.