Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
34.1 miles South of Oxnard
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
34.1 miles South of Oxnard
33.7044°N, 119.1758°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 07:52:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7b50f213ace91d3db90842a8109bb7ec406cd2b8a923409809568f19473dd763
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.70--119.18-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 20:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260807_110215_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 16:51:38.845506+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.