Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
2.2 miles North-East of San Jacinto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.2 miles North-East of San Jacinto
33.8064°N, 116.9326°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 16:38:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 8.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cb7f0bd61d25479a7116d52ca1d28f16ade257fa858498b235d36ac92d508ebe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.81--116.93-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 11:52:51 PST
Source Batch
20260804_021812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 11:52:51.974608+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.