Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.9 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North-East of Banning
33.9898°N, 116.7848°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 08:05:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
36.9 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 18.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bedb0111cd1c25c2192d156134918cb7b217c29369dea2af54546464a6670f43
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-33.99--116.78-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_001513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 09:33:13.536511+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.