Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.3 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North-East of Banning
33.9962°N, 116.8074°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 13:42:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
34.8 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 16.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6e8000ff204aa7c266eebf3dad8627f99ee00a93ca364f2c10385764c4989e0f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.00--116.81-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 12:57:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_032821_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.