Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.3 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North-East of Banning
33.9979°N, 116.8085°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 23:48:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2f65a1c78a1ddc7188e95c58a93b6ed8991030b57841e31886584f2eb3ca56e5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.00--116.81-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 22:40:46 PST
Source Batch
20260804_130943_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 22:40:47.884037+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.