Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
9.9 miles North-East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles North-East of Banning
34.0173°N, 116.7445°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of July 2026
Jul 29, 2026 04:02:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
20.2 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
371467b5ad39636e133b82944e4517616eeb405b84c663aecc353614fa09d9f4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.02--116.74-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.