Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
18.5 miles North-West of Eagle Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles North-West of Eagle Mountain
34.0612°N, 115.5969°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 05:28:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
124.6 km
24.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
29.7 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 11.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
749fd194ed2ae1abda808caec2fb6f51741ec4fd8c6481ab6d0ed0303c2a4f17
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.06--115.60-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Source Batch
20260802_175908_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 03:34:22.291936+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.