Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
3.4 miles North-West of Rialto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles North-West of Rialto
34.1490°N, 117.4001°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 07:44:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
33h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.69 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
21e7233c3064fc520105c0a503718140cecf8fff5f3e404e66a5663cf337fe90
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.15--117.40-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_121529_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 21:47:54.605295+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.