Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.4 miles North-West of Rialto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles North-West of Rialto
34.1643°N, 117.4009°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 08:57:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 0.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
607694b4d60d50ee3aac41462029181cecfd7f913677bd9771c2a432f929bcec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.16--117.40-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 20:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260807_110215_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 16:51:38.845506+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.