Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
4.4 miles South-West of Oxnard
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South-West of Oxnard
34.1561°N, 119.2364°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 14:06:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
38.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.63
Predicted M3.13 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
968c098a86aba1da570225941614cce4a951c2fab1eed0d7d63b7f787c965cda
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.16--119.24-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 13:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260813_041513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 13:47:54.526147+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.