Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.8 miles South-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-East of Big Bear Lake
34.1661°N, 116.8392°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 20:57:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1b2e8edc8bd480eeb14abfc71ca4e68b1d742cb225e6aac9a718e1118b184256
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.17--116.84-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_074655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 17:20:01.067154+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.