Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
4.7 miles South-West of Devore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles South-West of Devore
34.1737°N, 117.4314°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 04:43:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
35h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
46.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6609426e033a2859a494f0be4eb23920eb1ed77b656fbed672a36bf67b725180
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.17--117.43-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 16:54:35 PST
Source Batch
20260802_072030_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.