Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
10.3 miles East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.3 miles East of Big Bear Lake
34.2220°N, 116.7337°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 21:09:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
24.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 8.8 km vs actual 5.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
1dd8afcc05e9593ad3b1ece397b21e744933bbce72e4250177b43daacc8deaeb
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.22--116.73-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 01:52:07 PST
Source Batch
20260817_045547_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 01:52:08.440284+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.