Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.2 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.2 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.2729°N, 116.8460°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 13:03:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
db44f0a7c034122216f356da12912b8876705dbb4b4ab724631bc355bad0406a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.27--116.85-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 00:03:19 PST
Source Batch
20260809_143000_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 00:03:20.102765+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.