Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.2999°N, 116.8551°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 01:54:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f923ce77aac4889e6d01f0899060041bf1ba882db28a1edda13553d0f2f86734
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.30--116.86-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 13:06:15 PST
Source Batch
20260809_033314_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 13:06:16.783992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.