Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.6 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3089°N, 116.8268°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 00:10:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
4.0 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e945c22b009fa6051f23270d1e6a179e924be58338e6102a5bdbd3304cb3c438
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.31--116.83-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Source Batch
20260807_182918_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 04:01:32.694486+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.