Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.8 miles North-East of Ventura
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles North-East of Ventura
34.3147°N, 119.1402°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 17:03:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
61.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
51.9 h
3.9 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
5.4 km
Pred. 4.7 km vs actual 0.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
4a05bc2448c6744ea7b093240c9ca08b1a5325064e8ee018fb0e072a38ae6b8c
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-34.31--119.14-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 20, 2026 20:46:18 PST
Source Batch
20260820_102630_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-20 20:46:19.300890+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.