Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.3 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3179°N, 116.8484°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 04:07:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
374a5ed63fde2f9b36c87d7d419da7cc11f7ac59f7e17c8d7d91f22f15d946df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.32--116.85-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 09, 2026 09:27:32 PST
Source Batch
20260808_235402_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 05:48:04.143084+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.