Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3204°N, 116.8774°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 10:01:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
19.6 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 16.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2e40d678f365a43db87088fd4022ed7c34c6ed38ec1e568c04b9bf09c4a4de27
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.32--116.88-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_202541_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.