Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3274°N, 116.8422°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 20:55:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ac3786ee2e33ca83bb1a6b8f5b0de4f6b1bba344abd400fe8344738aa8d10f40
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.33--116.84-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 22:28:35 PST
Source Batch
20260808_125544_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 07:42:46.984128+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.