Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3278°N, 116.8468°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 21:13:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
28h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
69.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.99
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ffb7e04ba007ac00cd3d503408f33774bdc35b75b5df2a86090742e8bdd246f9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.33--116.85-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 16:51:37 PST
Source Batch
20260807_071927_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 16:51:38.845506+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.