Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3278°N, 116.8468°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 02:08:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
90.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 14.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b4b83b2a8019c89a0a151cea762f57e340d0bb9a844d59594c111d2689deef69
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.33--116.85-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 20:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260807_110215_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 20:34:54.161848+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.