Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3348°N, 116.8555°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 16:10:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
40.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 3.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
96fcf2e9cb3a06491e02acfc486aa78ff4d844fa84d6a1c519ae0cc34e0d811b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.33--116.86-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 20:30:30 PST
Source Batch
20260805_105832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 13:14:06.311538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.