Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.0 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3292°N, 116.8943°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 16:23:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.45
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cb2d139a22799f9487b6879d492776a02a0f581a52a4d6cda99709cd5d6ec3d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.33--116.89-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 08:36:38 PST
Source Batch
20260810_230341_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 08:36:39.656762+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.