Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
7.8 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.8 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3434°N, 116.8483°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 23:15:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
8h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 2.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
28de7bf10704615fb22e8a36cd0b5b4af8c9b15f404a0f201b26c1abae8d6135
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.34--116.85-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 14:33:33 PST
Source Batch
20260810_050122_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 10:57:03.705261+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.