Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3361°N, 116.8632°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 15:05:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cd14090d5b7dc2f0d871f84bf33c5746cb5e63c2d5120f887fb48903efc36ea1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.34--116.86-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 02:54:38 PST
Source Batch
20260801_172642_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 02:54:39.445982+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.