Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.3 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.3 miles North-East of Big Bear Lake
34.3387°N, 116.8569°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 09:36:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
36.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.7 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 10.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
882bb6cd477f8077c76781040dd4634cc7438518a464643e7146b549ac70c84b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-34.34--116.86-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 02:19:37 PST
Source Batch
20260811_164843_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 05:00:55.599592+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.